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On the demand side, we expect investment growth in infrastructure and real estate to be higher than in 2012, infrastructure investment growth rate is 8%, and real estate new construction area growth rate is about 5%. At the supply end, we counted the most pessimistic situation. Clinker production capacity increased by about 150 million tons, and neutrality was 110 million tons. East China is the region with the least new supply. The supply and demand relationship in the region will be better than this year next year, and it is the region with the most profitable profitability in all regions.
In the medium and long term, urbanization is the main driver of future cement demand growth.
There is a direct correlation between the peak consumption of cement and the level of urbanization. After research, the peak value of general cement has appeared in urbanization rate of more than 70%. China's current urbanization rate is only 51.27%, and there is still a distance from reaching the peak of cement. We expect China's cement demand to peak in 5-10 years, but the growth rate will gradually slow down. After 2020, as China's urbanization gradually approaches the developed countries, the demand for cement will gradually fall, and then stabilized at a certain level. s level.
Cement investment strategy: the preferred East China Central China region, pay attention to North China
You can focus on the Huadong area of ​​East China, where the concentration is high, the synergy is strong, and the future capacity increase is small. East China has a good synergy base and a high degree of concentration. We believe that when the relationship between supply and demand has improved, the synergy of East China will help boost cement prices in the region. Recommended Conch Cement, Huaxin Cement, Chaodong Shares. At the same time, we can pay attention to the cement enterprises in North China, which are currently in the bottom area: Jidong Cement and Jinluo.
Other building materials focus on fiberglass, water conservancy and rail transit
Concerns (1) China's glass fiber: bottom of profit, supply and demand relations will be better next year, the industry competition pattern is good, and prices are expected to rise. (2) Water conservancy: Longquan shares and Qinglong pipe industry have received more orders this year, and the performance of next year will increase steadily. (3) Kaier New Materials: The rail transit project will enter the construction peak period next year, and the company's orders will be converted into performance.
risk warning:
The economic recovery at home and abroad was slower than expected, the capacity was too fast, and the funds were in place.